personal finance

Rely on rolling returns, not point to point data

“FD can give better returns over a 10 year period than stock markets”. That was the shocking statement that triggered this article in Business Standard more so because is true 5% of the time (95% of the time stock markets beat fixed deposits over 10 years). Clients often struggle to embrace rolling returns, which offer a clearer picture than misleading point-to-point comparisons. Mark Twain’s words on ‘lies, damned lies, and statistics’ resonate when cherry-picking exceptional periods like the rare 10 year period where FDs beat the stock market—ignoring that 95% of the time, stocks outperform FDs. Investors reading this please remember this when your advisor is asking you to exit a fund which has given good point to point returns but has poor rolling returns compared to its benchmark and peers.

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Evaluate funds on rolling returns over long term

Momentum funds have become the flavour of the season with their outsized “extra” returns over the already high returns provided by the market over the last one year. Harsh’s article in the Business Standard highlighting how they are not the absolute certainty they are made out to be. There is a need to take a conscious decision on the tradeoffs involved while evaluating investments in such factor funds.

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Breaking the silence on death and money

Is it a good idea for a financial plan to consider the inheritance that is likely to be received maybe decades later? Would parents be comfortable discussing these issues with their children? In this article Harsh write about Rekha who was able to follow her passion for starting a non-conventional business because she figured her goal for a retirement home could be taken care of from the inheritance from her parents. She had mixed feelings about the decision as family situations and circumstances are dynamic and complex. Did she take the correct decision? Your views are most welcome…

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Retail investors vs algos: Like lambs to slaughter

Harsh had worked out a half baked doubling stake strategy to try and win a game of chance called “Lucky 7” popular in the 1980s. F&O traders try to make money by using similiar half baked strategies or algorithms promoted by brokers interested in boosting trading volumes. As a result 93% of such traders lose the money (a whopping Rs. 1,83,000 crores in last 3 years) that is mopped up by 1% of them who use well researched and thought through algorithms executed in nano seconds. Harsh’s article in Business Standard why investors who ignore SEBIs warnings, do so at their own peril.

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Perils of keeping surplus money in bank accounts

Back in the 1970’s the Soviet bureaucrats worked out a clever ploy to deny permission to a US citizen seeking to marry a Soviet citizen. They asked him to provide proof that he was not “already married”. Getting a document certifying a negative fact is impossible. An Indian bank account holder, victim of cyber fraud, faced a somewhat similar predicament when he was required to prove that he had not received any OTP sms or email from the bank. Harsh’s article in the business standard on how the issue was resolved and what lessons can be learnt so that citizens facing similiar issues have an easier time.

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Investing for children: Buy house or opt for MFs?

Meera, a high flying corporate executive, was bent on using the money earned from her ESOPs to buy a second house as an investment which could be passed on to her children later. Her spouse Karan was against it as it would mean postponing their retirement plan. Harsh’s article in Business Standard on how Karan and Harsh managed to convince Meera to invest the money into financial assets instead. “You do not buy a cow today just because you may need milk years later. You make sure you have the money to buy the cow should you require it later” was one of the arguments that helped to convince Meera.

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Lack of central KYC hinders market participation

Harsh just spent an idyllic week trekking through south west france. His tour organiser could put this together so well because the basic infrastructure already exists. Things like complete Geo marking of every square meter, availability of licensed hotels and taxi services who actually follow the licensing conditions & general cleanliness allowed them to build and deliver excellent packages on top. His article in the Business Standard drawing an analogy to an investors journey where the lack of a basic infrastructure like a centralized KYC has meant that 20 crore indians are involved with crypto/online gaming platforms with real money, but only half as many have demat accounts, and less than a quarter invest in MF.

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Inheritance tax: An idea doomed to failure

The idea of an inheritance tax or estate duty is bandied about from time to time. It is in human nature to rejoice at the suffering of those who are better off than themselves. Hence it is attractive for political parties that think short term (are there any political parties that are otherwise??) since it impacts a tiny fraction of the population only. Harsh’s article in Business Standard on why it is an idea that is doomed to failure.

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Retirement: Embrace holistic planning

There is more to retirement planning than ensuring enough monetary corpus to last out a long retired life (almost as long as the working career itself). Unfortunately, even corporate executives nearing retirement, do not think about retirement at all and the few who do, concentrate on the monetary resources required for retired life. As the example of my friend Yogesh shows even a well planned retirement plan can have it’s twists and turns but is better than none at all. Harsh’s article in the business standard. Your comments and suggestions are welcome as always.

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Insurance: High surrender charges deter exits

Most people reading this article would have experienced the bank’s “relationship manager” trying to (mis)sell a life insurance policy to them. Harsh’s article in Business Standard on the economics that push the bank to cannibalise on their own deposits and convert them into Life Insurance premiums. Comments/ disagreements welcome.

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