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Rely on rolling returns, not point to point data

“FD can give better returns over a 10 year period than stock markets”. That was the shocking statement that triggered this article in Business Standard more so because is true 5% of the time (95% of the time stock markets beat fixed deposits over 10 years). Clients often struggle to embrace rolling returns, which offer a clearer picture than misleading point-to-point comparisons. Mark Twain’s words on ‘lies, damned lies, and statistics’ resonate when cherry-picking exceptional periods like the rare 10 year period where FDs beat the stock market—ignoring that 95% of the time, stocks outperform FDs. Investors reading this please remember this when your advisor is asking you to exit a fund which has given good point to point returns but has poor rolling returns compared to its benchmark and peers.

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Sebi´s new product: MF´s efficiency, PMS´ control

The New Product (earlier called New Asset Class) approved by SEBI Board, is excellent for investors comfortable with high risk investments. It will also allow Long short strategies and is designed to wean investors away from unregulated products. Whilst the New Product will do that, the operational ease and tax benefits of the MF structure will most probably also result in the New Product eating into the existing Rs. 2 lakh crore PMS market. If the fund manager is offering a choice to the investor between the two , there is no doubt the investor will choose the New Product.

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Evaluate funds on rolling returns over long term

Momentum funds have become the flavour of the season with their outsized “extra” returns over the already high returns provided by the market over the last one year. Harsh’s article in the Business Standard highlighting how they are not the absolute certainty they are made out to be. There is a need to take a conscious decision on the tradeoffs involved while evaluating investments in such factor funds.

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Breaking the silence on death and money

Is it a good idea for a financial plan to consider the inheritance that is likely to be received maybe decades later? Would parents be comfortable discussing these issues with their children? In this article Harsh write about Rekha who was able to follow her passion for starting a non-conventional business because she figured her goal for a retirement home could be taken care of from the inheritance from her parents. She had mixed feelings about the decision as family situations and circumstances are dynamic and complex. Did she take the correct decision? Your views are most welcome…

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Subjecting employees to excess stress is illegal

The death of young CA Anna Perayil spotlights the adverse impact of incessant work pressures thrust on employees by some employers. Whilst there are laws governing working hours, rest breaks and leaves ,very few employees are even aware of such laws, let alone seek redressal under them. Most employers recognise that a healthy work life balance is great for employee productivity and create a suitable culture around it. But that’s not true for all organisations. A reiteration of the existing laws, providing easier grievance redressal and mandating a reporting structure for HR statistics would help employees gravitate away from such organisations. Many employees themselves are unsure whether an emphasis on work life balance early in their career would harm their career prospects. This is a complex but vital issue as corporate India shifts gears into a higher trajectory and your views will help shape the discussion..

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Retail investors vs algos: Like lambs to slaughter

Harsh had worked out a half baked doubling stake strategy to try and win a game of chance called “Lucky 7” popular in the 1980s. F&O traders try to make money by using similiar half baked strategies or algorithms promoted by brokers interested in boosting trading volumes. As a result 93% of such traders lose the money (a whopping Rs. 1,83,000 crores in last 3 years) that is mopped up by 1% of them who use well researched and thought through algorithms executed in nano seconds. Harsh’s article in Business Standard why investors who ignore SEBIs warnings, do so at their own peril.

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IT department´s stock and flow problem

Lakhs of tax payers receive notices from the Income tax dept. regarding their expenses or investments being disproportionate to their taxable income for the same year – implying that the expenses or investments are from unaccounted sources. Most cases have simple explanations – the income was declared in a previous year or it is exempt income – facts already available in the tax dept database. Yet lakhs of tax payers have to duel with the tax authorities to prove their credentials. Most people emerge victorious after a long and arduous ordeal costing time and money. The tax department resources are used up in dealing with the honest tax payers & the tax evaders may escape. Harsh’s article in Business Standard on why the tax departments Data Analysis Package can cross tally more information and thus have more pointed search results more likely to net tax evaders while being bothersome for fewer honest tax payers.

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Usher in competition between EPF and NPS

Employees earning Rs. 15,000 pm pay “tax” @42% (the same rate as those earning more than Rs. 5 crores do). Finance minister late Arun Jaitley in his budget speech for 2015 mentioned “the situation with regard to the dormant EPF accounts and the claim ratios of ESIs is too well known to be repeated here. It has been remarked that both EPF and ESI have hostages, rather than clients. Further, the low paid worker suffers deductions greater than the better paid workers, in percentage terms.” He went on to advocate the solutions listed here. These solutions though promised a decade ago in a budget speech on the floor of the parliament have been stonewalled by the powerful EPFO and ESI establishments. Bureaucrats can justify anything as exemplified by the fictional UK bureaucrat Sir Humphrey in the BBC series “Yes Minister”. Watch how he justifies continuing a hospital with no patients but with 500 administrative staff https://shorturl.at/pdau2 . Don’t let the Sir Humphreys win this battle.

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Exit with indexation should be offered

Two friends, Ram and Shyam, were travelling on a train when robbers started looting its passengers. Shyam owed some money to Ram. Before the robbers could reach them, Shyam took the money from his pocket and repaid his loan to Ram. Shyam was technically correct in repaying the loan then. Similarly, the Govt.’s move to do away with indexation is technically not a retroactive amendment but it has retroactive impact and is against tax stability. The removal of indexation follows global practices but its abrupt implementation does not. The govt should allow indexation till 2024 with the reduced rates of 12.50%. Opponents will become supporters & the future capital gain taxation will be as per government wishes. The govt can snatch victory from the jaws of defeat as far as the attempt to project a taxpayer friendly image of India is concerned if they announce incorporation of tax admin changes and an enforceable taxpayers charter into the proposed new code.

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