Returns

Rely on rolling returns, not point to point data

Financial, Investments, Personal Finance, Press / By /

“FD can give better returns over a 10 year period than stock markets”. That was the shocking statement that triggered this article in Business Standard more so because is true 5% of the time (95% of the time stock markets beat fixed deposits over 10 years). Clients often struggle to embrace rolling returns, which offer a clearer picture than misleading point-to-point comparisons. Mark Twain’s words on ‘lies, damned lies, and statistics’ resonate when cherry-picking exceptional periods like the rare 10 year period where FDs beat the stock market—ignoring that 95% of the time, stocks outperform FDs. Investors reading this please remember this when your advisor is asking you to exit a fund which has given good point to point returns but has poor rolling returns compared to its benchmark and peers.

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Evaluate funds on rolling returns over long term

Investments, Mutual Fund, Personal Finance, Press / By /

Momentum funds have become the flavour of the season with their outsized “extra” returns over the already high returns provided by the market over the last one year. Harsh’s article in the Business Standard highlighting how they are not the absolute certainty they are made out to be. There is a need to take a conscious decision on the tradeoffs involved while evaluating investments in such factor funds.

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Appeal to ‘slow mind’ to wean investors off F&O

Financial, Governments, Investments, Press / By /

Can you solve this puzzle : A bat and a ball together cost ₹ 1,100.
The bat costs ₹ 1,000 more than the ball.
How much does the ball cost?

If your answer was ₹ 100, that´s incorrect.
The right answer is ₹ 50.
Nobel Laureate and behavioural economist Daniel Kahneman cites this example in his book, Thinking Fast and Slow, to introduce the concept of the ´fast mind´ (which provides intuitive answers without conscious deliberation), and the ´slow mind´ (which is supposed to deliberate and endorse or reject the fast mind´s intuitive answers).
The fast mind´s immediate answers can be frequently wrong.
The slow mind is lazy and prone to biases.
Yet, with the right training, the slow mind can be tutored to amend the fast mind´s intuitive answers.
So what does this interesting puzzle have to do with weaning Individual Indian investors away from speculating in Futures & Options ? Read Harsh’s article in Business standard to know more..

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Have realistic expectations from your investments

Financial, Investments, Press / By /

Clients are always amazed when we tell them that looking at how the investments have fared for them is not the right way to review their continuance or otherwise. Using cricketing analogy Harsh explain why looking at moving long term performance of the investment vis-a-vis its peers is a much better way to review the continuance of any investment – rather than the performance experienced by them. In fact the focus on reviewing investments (reviewing the performance of the selected batsman) takes the focus away from reviewing the performance of the entire plan itself. Harsh’s article in Business Standard.

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Maximising returns can harm financial health

Financial, Personal Finance, Press / By /

Trying to maximise returns can be injurious to your financial health. Harsh’s article in Business Standard today uses cricket analogy on why the decision-making process (even if the outcome is not the highest) is more important than just a successful outcome. When our ancestors lived in the jungles the outcome of one mistake meant instant death. Hence the need to always be right is baked into our evolutionary consciousness. But in investing you don’t need to be always right. Being mostly right is sufficient. “I would want this batsman to be in the team” said one of the selectors cited in the article. “Only if I was the captain of the opposite side” he went on to add. 😊 . He enjoys receiving your comments and suggestions and will respond to queries as quickly as he can.

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Assess your advisor on long-term performance

Financial, Personal Finance, Press / By /

As an advisory firm we get asked by prospective clients about the indicative returns that they can expect. In this article in business standard, using cricketing analogy, Harsh explore why that is such a counter productive question. The headline is a little misleading. Assess your advisor by how comfortable you feel on your journey towards achieving your financial goals – not by how much returns have been achieved. There is no use achieving high returns if your goals are not achieved. Comments welcome

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