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When markets fall: Should investors worry or invest more?

Markets often fall for different reasons — wars, financial crises, or pandemics — but the question investors ask remains the same: Should we worry or see it as a buying opportunity? The recent decline of about 12% from the January 2026 peak has raised similar concerns among investors. History suggests such declines are normal. Since 1980, markets have risen in 38 of the 46 calendar years, yet they have experienced 10% or more corrections in 41 of those years. In fact, the average intra-year fall has been around 20%, even in years when markets ultimately ended higher. Despite these frequent ...

March 16, 2026

Advice

Being well informed is not enough, seek opposing views

Girish, a seasoned CFO who closely tracks global markets, was convinced that “all pundits were bullish” on silver. He had read extensively before forming his view. Yet my own reading revealed a far more divided expert opinion — some optimistic, many cautious. The gap wasn’t about silver’s prospects. It was about perception. Girish had unknowingly fallen into confirmation bias — the tendency to seek information that supports existing beliefs while overlooking contradictory evidence. He wasn’t trying to be selective. Like most investors, he was looking for reassurance, not contradiction. This bias has deep evolutionary roots. Early humans benefited from acting ...

March 2, 2026

Advice

The SGB Issue: Why Tax Certainty Matters

Imagine a Test match where the host prepares two pitches — a green top for fast bowlers and a dry track for spinners. Before the match, it announces that the green top will be used, and the visiting team selects its players accordingly. After the toss, the host switches to the dry track — the one prepared for itself. In cricket, this would be called unfair play. In taxation, it is called a retrospective change. That is what the Budget 2026 proposal does by removing the capital gains exemption on Sovereign Gold Bonds (SGB) already bought.

February 16, 2026

Governments

Virtual retro tax overshadows many positives of this Budget

Budget 2026 offers several promising reforms, but one provision threatens to overshadow them all: taxing capital gains on Sovereign Gold Bonds bought from the secondary market. Previously, RBI redemption was tax-exempt regardless of how the bonds were acquired; restricting this benefit only to original subscribers is effectively retrospective, with an estimated impact of about ₹8,000 crore. Other measures are constructive—TRS-based sell-downs could deepen the corporate bond market; overseas individuals of non-Indian origin may soon invest in Indian equities; and proposals such as exempting global income of returning experts and enabling online low-TDS certificates could ease frictions for talent and startups. ...

February 2, 2026